Showing posts with label Forex Trading Basic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Trading Basic. Show all posts

Multiple Exit Methods On Closing A Trade

Image result for how to close a forex trade
Is closing a trade still a mystery to you? Maybe you have been thinking how to really plan on closing a trade to maximize profit. Many discussions about Forex Trading have put so much attention and focus on how to enter a trade. You will see thousand of ways on how to analyze the chart technically and interpret the news for fundamental analysis for a good and proper trade entry. If analyzing the entry is a difficult task to do, to most of the traders, planning the exit is even more difficult. In analyzing and conceptualizing of achieving a successful exit, the basis of the exit should be in agreement exactly with the entry plan. Aligned. The reason for the exit should be well thought and doesn't rely on a simple Stop-Loss or Hedge (when trading without Stop-Loss).

In this post we will discuss overview of the different exit plans that you can do to close a trade. With a pinch of creativity, you can explore different ways of using them. Some of the exit methods can give you mediocre result. Some are hard to implement but with perseverance you may possibly achieve them with high winning rate, and most of the these exit methodologies should be implemented with extra care as it can do harm to your fund if not executed with a good overall plan.
  • Hard Stop-Loss - Success Rate: Poor, many traders have been evangelizing the use of hard stop-loss, but do you know that poorly plan stop-loss is more risky and harmful than a trade with no stop-loss. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that a stop-loss is a bad idea. It is actually a good idea to use this but if you use it just because your basis are just simple supports, resistances, or ATR, then you are in big trouble. It should be more than that.
  • Dynamic Stop-Loss - Success Rate: Poor on slow reversal, Excellent in sudden reversal, this is a calculated hidden stop-loss that gets triggered when there is a very quick reversal like the flash crash. The dynamic stop-loss is a proprietary concept by the one who discovered it, so it can not be discussed here. It is a method that can not be implemented manually. The good news is a tool is available online that you can use as a complete exit tool for your scalping. It includes the dynamic stop-loss. You can download it from this link. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/27235
  • Hedging - Success Rate: Good, in implementing this method, you can use the hedging trade with the same lotsize as the original open trade or you can use higher lotsize. Escaping the hedge is the hardest part. The best tip that I can give you is to plan how you can reach the break-even point then you can decide if you still want to profit from it or close it to free you from stress and just start over again. The first step in escaping the hedge is to analyze again the general direction of the price then take appropriate action to at least reach the break-even point. 
  • Averaging - Success Rate: Good, in this method you have to open more trades at a specific time interval to average profit until it becomes positive. The best way to implement this is by combining it with a very good entry plan that determines the general direction. Do not implement it right away if the analysis of the direction is still aligned with the position. When the trade reverses that's the time you put the averaging to work.
  • Grid - Success Rate: Good, this is somewhat the same with averaging because you also need to open more trades here and you also need to average them. The difference is you don't do it at a specific time. You have to open more trades with a specific distance, so trades are lined up like a grid. The best way to implement this is the same with Averaging.
  • Trail Stop - Success Rate: Good, this is already available in MT4. It is good in preserving your profit when the price moves along the direction of your position. Explore more this feature then you will discover that it does not only save your profit. It does more.
  • Cut Loss - Success Rate: Very Poor, to some of the traders, they panic when a trade goes south. They resort to this when they can no longer think of something to do to save their losing positions. I would say if a trader does this. He doesn't have a complete trading plan. He analyzes only how to enter a trade but doesn't bother to think about how he can complete that trade by planning first how to exit it before opening the trade.
Research more on how you can do the exit methodologies I listed above. Google is your friend. You will not get the exact answer from Google but you will surely get the hint to complete your plan. The best tip that I can give to you for your success is try to combine two or more of these exit methods, you will discover new angles of ideas that you never thought before.

Forex Trading Myth


Somebody asked me...

STRANGER: Can I actually replace my full-time job with income from Forex trading?

ME: Yes. How much is your job salary?

STRANGER: $50,000 a year. Can you show me how?

ME: Your freedom depends on how much you are willing to invest. How much you are planning to invest for your initial fund?

STRANGER: $200 only. It's too risky.

ME: Ok. But it will take you 11years or more to earn $50K per year with that kind of investment, if and only if you can consistently earn 5% a month. That's on compounded . (Boom)

The Myth 

Many traders have been dreaming that they can really achieve their dream life with just a $200 of investment. They think that it's a magical get-rich-quick scheme that will give them unlimited income with a few dollars.

The Reality 

This kind of mentality makes them trade with large lotsizes with a very small fund on a live account. They usually ended up disappointed. To achieve the freedom that you've been dreaming of, you have to plan for it. Learn Forex trading at least how to earn safely and conservatively if you have a job. It is possible to earn 50% a month or more (believe me, I have friends who earn this much trading Forex fulltime) but you have to invest a lot of time and money before you can come up with the best trading plan that you have longed for. Since you are having a 9-5 job, you have to be realistic on your plan. Aim for at least 5% a month safely (very doable).

If you want to replace your job income with trading income, do the math. If you earn 5% a month with Forex trading, you need to have at least $85K fund to earn $4,250 a month, or $51K a year.

If you are only willing to invest $200 for this, you need a good consistent system that can make you earn 5% a month to make $85K money in 11 years.

So how much you are willing to invest?

PS It will take you more than 11 years to earn the dream fund if you will withdraw some profit along the way.

How To Update Backtest Historical Data To Have 90% Data Modelling Quality For Free

I just want to share to you how to update your MT4 Historical Data within MT4. No need to buy any plugin or downloading data file from other websites to achieve a 90% data modelling quality. You can achieve it within MT4.

Let's start...

Step 1) Run your MT4. From the menu, click Tools>History Center, or simply press F2 key. The History Center window will appear.

Click the image below to see larger image of the History Center window.

Step 2) At the left pane of the History Center window, choose the pair (e.g AUDUSD) that you want to update and double click. The timeframes under the pair will appear. Choose M1 timeframe. As seen in the image below.

Step 3) At the lower left corner of the window, click "Download" button. A warning message will appear as seen in the image below. Click "Ok" button.


Step 4)  MT4 will download your M1 data from Metaquotes as seen in the image below.

Step 5)  Once M1 data is downloaded, it's time to update the other timeframes with just a few clicks only. Choose M5. Click "Download" button. The same warning message mentioned above will appear again. Click "Ok" button. Another message will appear. See the image below. It says there's no more data to be downloaded and ask you instead to update and synchronize other timeframes. Click "Yes" to update all timeframes of the pair.

Step 6)  The warning message mentioned above will appear again stating that it will change data of other timeframes. Click "Ok". It will start synchronizing the data of all timeframes.

That's it. You can now use the pair for your backtesting.

How To Load Custom Indicators In MT4

To those who havent tried yet to use a custom indicator, it is actually a very simple process. Here are the steps... .

  1. Run MT4 
  2. At the menu, click FILE>OPEN DATA FOLDER. A folder will pop up. 
  3. At the folder, goto to subfolders MQL4>Indicators 
  4. Copy the indicator's EX4 file in the folder. 
  5. Close the folder 
  6. Go back to MT4 
  7. Go to Navigator window. If the Navigator window is not visible, press Control-N. It will appear. 
  8. At the Navigator window, right click anywhere in the window and click Refresh. 

Here are the steps in loading the custom indicator in a chart.

  1. Open any chart. 
  2. At the main menu, choose INSERT>INDICATOR>CUSTOM. 
  3. A submenu of custom indicators will appear. Choose the name of the custom indicator that you just loaded in MT4. 
  4. The parameter window of the indicator will appear. Update the parameter if you need to, but you can try not to change any value in the parameters at first try just to see if the indicator will display properly. 
  5. Click OK button. Your custom indicator will appear in the chart. . You can try the following FREE custom indicators that I uploaded to test this procedure... 


PricePattern
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1367435410032019/ 

Currency Force Analyzer
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1366085830166977/ 

WeeklyPivot
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1367492200026340/ 

Trendlines
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1366955860079974/ 

TrailingPO
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1366885233420370/ 

Close All Trades
https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/1366577320117828/

Enjoy :)

What Is A Virtual Private Server (VPS)

Virtual Private Server (VPS) is a remote server or computer provided by Internet hosting service provider. It has its own operating system, Windows or Linux, installed into it. The customer or user of the VPS has the authority to install software. It functions like a local computer but the CPU and operations are taken place into the server or cloud.

For a Forex trader that runs an Forex Robot or Expert Advisor (EA), a VPS is a convenient solution for him to run his MT4 with the EA around the clock. He can actually off his physical personal computer as the EA is running at the server.

Where can you get this kind of technical service? It is actually simple. You can just google to get links of different VPS provider. Once you find one, you just need to register to their website and they will give instructions how to set up the VPS in your computer.

For me personally, I used PIVPS as my VPS provider. It is a very reliable but one of the most inexpensive providers out there. In case you want to subscribe to it, please see below the link for PIVPS...

https://portal.pivps.com/aff.php?aff=105

Downloading, Installing, Setting Up Metatrader 4

Metatrader 4 or MT4 for short is the industry standard platform for Forex trading by regular people. For beginners, you have to register first to IC Markets (my broker) before downloading the MT4. To register please use, the registration link below with my tracking and referral code, "7469". Click it and fill out all the information fields.

http://icmarkets.com/?camp=7469

After your registration, watch the tutorial video below on how to download, install and set up your first MT4 application.

More About Trading Psychology: Confidence


Related image
What is confidence? How it can make or break you as a trader?

Trading confidence is the psychology of initial success. it is the feeling or belief with a firm trust that you can rely on a strategy or trading plan. It is the psychological tool that traders have and use to fight fear and all emotions related to it. How do we gain confidence? We get it once we achieve the first success with any strategy that we come accross with.

A trader must be aware that confidence, while it is one of the best emotional tools we have to fight fear on trading, confidence can also mislead us to do something stupid. Sometimes too much confidence makes us think that our strategy is the best strategy and it always has its magic. This can lead you to increase lotsize more than what is stated in your trading plan. Over confidence can also make you enter pre-mature trades. For example, if you have 5 conditions in your strategy then your current analysis meets only 4, because of your confidence in your strategy plus greed, you won't wait for the fifth condition to appear. You will open a trade right away.

Confidence can also make us tweak strategies irresponsively. Tweaking, exploring, and experimenting are important for you to discover good strategies, but you have to do it right. You can not expect success if you keep integrating all strategies you find into one analysis. You have to be careful in combining different analysis. This is common to old traders that have been using generic strategies in predicting price direction. When they see a new strategy, they do their analysis using it, then at the other part of the analysis they will check their old generic analytical tools to confirm. There are 2 things may happen, 1) you will fail. 2) you may experience success but it slows the profit. You are not sure if it's really working or you just got lucky. You can't really tell at an early stage. In order for you to confirm that it really works, you have to do the same analysis for a long period of time and no short cuts. Based on what I have observed with hundreds of students that I've had, on the next trade, they would tweak even more.

To be successful, keep it super simple. Just follow the trading plan exactly the way it is stated in the rules, no ifs no buts. If you think there's a better way of doing it, (good, you are thinking) do it in a separate account for at least 3 months. 

Why Forex Signals Don't Work

What are Forex Signals? According to Wikipedia "A forex signal is a suggestion for entering a trade on a currency pair, usually at a specific price and time. The signal is generated either by a human analyst or an automated Forex robot supplied to a subscriber of the forex signal service."

How the signals are sent to the clients? Forex signal providers are using different media on sending signals. They usually use one or more of the following; Twitter, FB Messenger, Telegram, test messages, emails, etc.

What are the problems with Forex Signals? 

As you can see in the definition of Wikipedia, a Forex signal is a suggestion for entering a trade on a currency pair at a specific price and time. The problem with this is no matter how good the entry suggestion, many subscribers will not get it right. This is because the signal is all about the Entry Plan. It doesn't mention what kind of Money Management to be used and most importantly, it doesn't tell the Exit Plan applicable to the entry plan. So what subscribers are getting is an incomplete suggestion. Some signal providers are sometimes giving Stop-Loss level as a part of the signal. Yes, SL is an exit plan. But SL is the lamest of all exit plans. If your SL is not a well thought and baseless SL, it is as bad as without SL with no basis. As I've been saying for years now, SL and no-SL are equally risky if you don't know what you are doing.

Another reason why Forex signals don't work is psychology. Traders have different attitudes towards trading. It will create a whole book if we are going to discuss everything :). If a strange Forex entry suggestion is given to a trader. The trader doesn't know what to expect from it. He doesn't know how the entry plan is analyzed. The trader is not prepared for that trading plan. He is not trained how to handle that kind trading plan. So the result of his trade will be erratic. As well as the behavior is most likely erratic. Most of the time, he panics.

So next time that you subscribe to a Forex signal, be sure the provider is giving you the whole package. It should include a money management plan, exit plan, and a clear training on what the signal is all about so you will behave properly on execution.

The Theory of the Forex Price Tide

The Forex market is like the ocean. It is like a river. The water flows... the water CURRENT. This is the reason why money is called CURRENCY. It creates its own flow. It circulates. It can be exchanged for other money. The flow creates demand. The demand makes it flow, even more, STRONG CURRENT. There's one of the best ways to survive the flow of money; SWIM ALONG THE TIDE. SWIM ALONG THE FLOW. It makes your Forex-life easier. 

The Theory of the Price Tide states that at any given price of any financial instrument that can be traded on both LONG and SHORT positions, the price will certainly go either way. Simple idea right? But how come the majority of traders failed to prepare a plan for this? Because they predict the price destination. There's nothing wrong with price prediction. I know a few traders that can successfully predict price destination with good probability and success. But to most of the traders, they are not meant to think and analyze like that. People have a different level of thinking. A person can be a good doctor but cannot be a price-predicting trader. A highly intelligent accountant may not be a good price-trend analyst. This is the reason why most traders fail. If you will ask me if I am a good price-predicting trader, I would say... I AM NOT. :) Since day 1 that I admitted to myself that I am not that good at that, that's the time that I start to gain a real profit. Because I started to look at a different angle, an alternative way to analyze the market price. Thus, this simple theory made me design a systematic approach to trading that doesn't need to predict the price. I just need to go with the trend until it ends. When the trend ends, I designed a strategy to limit losses when I still have positions. Once you see this dimension of the market, you will discover more dimensions, more ways to get positive pips. You can use all indicators available and you wouldn't even think that they are lagging. For price-predicting traders, indicators are lagging, but for trend-riders like us, it is not.

Trend-riders like us may not be as smart as the rest of the analytical traders. But our life is simple. And we achieve the bottom line, CONSISTENT PROFIT.

If your ego is not high like us, you can be a TREND-RIDERS like us. Join the circle, click here... https://www.facebook.com/groups/FXFledgling/permalink/1416740741768152/

More About Spread

Spread is the difference between Bid Price and Ask Price. The difference is where the brokers get their own business profit less the commission they give to their introducing brokers (IB agents).

For the traders, the spread is taken from each trade transaction. This makes traders confused when looking at the chart. At the chart, the default price you see in most brokers is the Bid Price. This makes the Ask Price not visible but always moves with the Bid Price, above it. So every time you look at the price in your chart which is the Bid Price, always imagine that there is an Ask Price above it, moving with it.

If you want to see a visible movement of the spread. At the MT4 menu, click "New Order". A window will pop out. At the left side of the window, you will see red and blue lines moving. The red line is the Ask Price. The blue line is the Bid Price. Watch them move.

If your account is using a standard variable spread. You will see that the difference between Bid and Ask is changing. Since the spread is the brokers' business, spread changes with supply and demand. When the market is volatile, there are many transactions going on due to high demand. When there's a high demand for Forex transactions, the spread gets bigger as well.

Spread makes newbies confused. Since the price you see in the chart is only the Bid Price, you will notice that there are different behaviors on BUY LONG and SELL SHORT transactions.

BUY LONG = When you buy long, tho you see the Bid Price, the opening price will be the Ask Price. So when a trade is open, you will have a negative profit right away as the opening price is above the current price already. If you set a Take-Profit (TP) price point above, let's say 10pips, when the current price (Bid) moves upward and hit that TP and queued already in the server. It will be closed exactly at the current price. If you set a Stop-Loss (SL) price point below, when the current price moves downward and the current price (Bid) hits the SL price, it will not close yet. The SL will activate only when the Ask Price hits the SL price point. That's why you'll see in the chart that the price moves lower than the SL before it gets closed.

SELL SHORT = When you sell short, the current price (Bid) becomes the opening price. When you set the TP price and the current price (Bid) moves downward and hit the TP, it will not close right away. The Ask price should reach the TP price before it closes. So the current price (Bid) passes a bit below the TP before it closes. When you set the SL above, and the price moves upward. When the current price hits SL, it will close right away.
   

On Learning Forex Trading: Start It Right

Newbies can relate to this...

You are seeing many tips and lessons in the internet on how to trade from different veterans and mentors. You have tried many of them but failed. So most of the newbie traders have thought that the internet is full of pretenders, fraudsters, and charlatans. So they would hate every Forex mentors they have seen online because they think they are fakes. Hold your horses. It may not always true. I think many of these Forex mentors have no intention to trick you. I think they are only guilty of one thing... They made you drive a BIG TRUCK right away... What⁉️⁉️


Forex Trading Is Like Driving

Learning how to trade is like learning how to drive. If you don't know yet how to drive, you can not expect to learn driving with a big truck. You will feel overwhelmed and may not learn it. Even if you do, the whole learning process is very hard, a very terrible experience. To avoid this bad experience, start it right. Start with a small car. It's the most easy and convenient way to start. You have to feel first how driving is. The learning curve will be shorter. The same with Forex trading. You should start small. While learning how to trade, you have to have a good feel of the market price movement first. To achieve that you have to start trading with a demo account right away, not to profit right away, but to feel the movement of the price. Immerse yourself to grasp the feeling. Absorb the idea that it's not just ups and downs, not just ranging and trending, and it's random, very difficult to predict the future price. Baby steps. You don't have to learn everything all at once. Learn one at a time. Learn while you are doing it. Just know where to get any information in case you come across a situation that you need help to learn something. Start learning using any customized tools that you come across with. Remember you don't have to master how each tool works. You just need to feel the experience of the market. Having a real feeling about the market can make you use any tool and indicator at your advantage. Any strategy taught to you, you've got a big chance to achieve success.

Enjoy the weekend :)

First Lesson In Trading Psychology

When you decided to be a trader and be good with it in the future. You have to decide also to re-wire your brain on an unusual mindset.

 There is no Best Trader in the world. When you put yourself into this business, you have to believe that you can not be the best trader in the world and you can not beat the World Forex Market. You are only as good as your trading plan. You are only as good as your "Entry Plan". You are only as good as your Money Management plan. You are only as good as your 'Exit Plan". You are only as good as how you follow your trading plan. You are only as good as your last trade. Even if you hit the TP this morning and gain 20% in one trade, still you are not the best trader in the world or any group. Even if you hit 500% this month, still you are not the best trader in the world. Even if you hit 3,000% this year, still you are not the best trader in the World. Always think that the most important thing for you to do your next best is to plan for it. If you can not imagine how your next trade will end, good or bad, your past performance is all negligible. Keep this in mind.

The Reality of Trading with Stop-Loss

If you are new to trading and you choose to trade with SL. There are different emotions involved once an SL is hit. no matter how good your strategy on setting SL, sometimes SL will be hit. You have to train yourself to live and accept the reality that sometimes your SL would be hit, or else you will find yourself "Revenge Trading". This is the reason why some traders prefer to trade without SL. KNOW THY SELF. It is the key, then choose the method appropriate for your personality. Once you find yourself, stick for the style you chose for a long time. Master it.

Just remember, trading with or without SL is equally risky if you don't know what you are doing. Perfect your craft.

About Currency Pairs And Charts

For newbies that have zero background on Forex Trading, maybe they are confused on Currency Pairs, Price Quotes and Chart. When we say currency pair, we partner 2 currencies. To represent that you put the 3-letter symbol of the currencies together, one on the left and the other one on the right. For example, if you  combine Euro and Japanese Yen, you will write it like this, EURJPY. EUR is the 3-letter symbol for Euro and JPY is for Japanese Yen.

How to kow which one is on the left and right?

I don't how it started (I didn't bother to research about it :) ), but the industry seems to follow a standard on who's on the left when it comes to the 8 commonly traded currencies. There is some sort of list of priorities on what currency is on the left. Here's the priority list on order of from top priority to last.

EUR - Euro
GBP - British Pound Sterling
AUD - Aussie Dollar
NZD - Kiwi Dollar
USD - US Dollar
CAD - Loonie Dollar
CHF - Swiss Francs
JPY - Japanese Yen

For the exotic ones, I don't know if they also follow a standard list.

So how this works. If you will pair CAD and AUD, the AUD comes first, like AUDCAD. It's that simple.


Price Quote / Conversion Rate

On price quote, when you see a price of a currency pair on the trading platform, chart, internet, or TV (business channel). The number actually refers to the conversion rate of the left currency to the right currency of the. So when you see EURUSD is 1.20241, it means 1 EUR = 1.20241 USD.  So all charts that you see in your MT4 is based on this.


Price Movement In Pips and Points

Look at any Forex candlestick chart, the number you see on the rightmost part of the chart is the price quotes. In most brokers, you will see 5 decimal digits for non-JPY pairs, and 3 digits for any pair with JPY. Few old-fashioned brokers' server have 4-decimal digits and 2-decimal digits, respectively. Each movement interval in 5-digit is 0.00001, and 0.001 for 3-digit. These price movement is called "Points". Ten movement of Points is called "Pips", so 1 Pip = 10 points. For 4-digit and 2-digit price quotes, they move only in Pips.


What is Spread?

Let's go deeper. The price quote you see on the chart is the Bid Price. But brokers have 2 prices, the BID and ASK. Bid price is always lower than the Ask price. The difference between the two is called SPREAD. On "BUY LONG" perspective, Bid is the buyer's price, and Ask is the seller's price. On currency pair when you BUY LONG, meaning, you are buying the rightmost currency with respect to the leftmost currency. On "SELL SHORT" perspective, Ask is the buyer's price (price=1/Ask), and Bid is the seller's price (price=1/Bid).  On currency pair when you SELL SHORT, it means you are buying the leftmost currency with respect to the rightmost currency. Spread is simply the broker's income on exchange transactions. Some brokers that offer zero spread, they apply a fixed commission on every transaction per lot.

It may not be clear at first, look and explore the charts then read many times this post while exploring the charts. You will soon understand it.