Is Crytocurrency A Bubble?

The answer is maybe YES. Let's dissect why.

Yes, Maybe It's A Bubble.

Though Cryptocurrency is not comparable with other bubbles that happened before, there are few key points that we have to consider that are similar to other bubbles before we invest in any Crypto. Yes, you can still invest in this bubble-like instrument. Fear of not investing in Crypto is also as bad as investing all your money in it.

What are the key points?

  1.  In the DotCom bubble, did you know that 5 dot-com companies survived from it? They still exist today; Ebay, Amazon, Coupons, Priceline, & Shutterfly. Their stock values were bubbled as well, but they never burst. This simply means that not all bubbles will burst. What is the key point why they were never included in the burst? The primary focus of these companies when they started was to build a huge market share and build a strong brand. The rest of the dot-com companies were there just to join the fad but never intended to do serious business. The survivors' stock values retraced but didn't do a complete reversal. So in the Crypto era, choose the cryptocurrencies that are well known, have a stable reputation, high demand, and a huge market cap. When the bubble burst, the fittest will survive. 
  2. Do not invest the money that can not afford to lose. Let me tell you a secret. Investing or trading in Cryptos nowadays is easier than stocks or Forex trading. Why because the trend is clear; uptrend. It is not just uptrend, but it is extremely fast. In some Cryptos, an average of 5%-10% per day is common. Does it give you a hint? Ok, if not, I will tell you anyway. When a Crypto is earning this fast, it means you can easily hit a 100% profit in a short period of time. When you hit this, you can easily withdraw the capital and let the profit run itself. Doing that makes your Crypto investment risk free. The good news is, every time you hit a 100% profit, you can withdraw the 50% and re-invest it in different instruments like stocks, mutual funds, etc. The other 50% will make your running investment in Crypto bigger and bigger.  In other bubbles before, there is no opportunity like this.
  3. OVERBOUGHT is just an opinion. Sometimes in any investment instrument, being overbought is just a state of mind. It is just a limitation that you impose to yourself, sometimes to scare yourself. No one really knows the intrinsic values of any assets. The most important is you can analyze and estimate its demands. When Bitcoin hit $5k, people were saying the price is already too high to get in. But look at the price of Bitcoin now. It's more than $18k. If you get scared of jumping in now just because your basis is just the price, you may be losing a lot in the future. Investing is a balance between FEAR and GREED. If you don't jump, you are not playing it safe as you are at the edge of FEAR. If you invested with all your money, you are at the other edge, GREED. Play in the middle. Play it safe by doing #2 above. Those who lost a lot in the previous bubbles are those who are at the extreme edges of the two. 

Cryptocurrency is a new way of living, a new way of running a business, and it's a new type of investment. In the future, it may be one of the safe havens of investments.

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